Analysts are closely watching the upcoming US presidential election, especially in terms of its potential impact Bitcoin. Recent analysis from Bernstein underlines a significant difference in Bitcoin’s prospects depending on the election victory of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
Their estimate indicates that if Trump were to prevail, Bitcoin could escalate to a range of $80,000 to $90,000 by the end of 2024. A win for Harris could result in Bitcoin falling to the $40,000 range due to expected regulatory hurdles.
Bernstein analysts said that short-term Bitcoin price fluctuations are closely linked to the results of the US elections. If Trump wins the US elections next month, Bitcoin’s price is expected to reach a new high of $80,000 to $90,000. If Harris wins, Bitcoin may fall back to…
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Bernstein analysts weigh in on Trump’s victory
Analysts at Bernstein, including Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia, claim that a Trump presidency would be “incrementally beneficial” for the Bitcoin industry. Trump’s conversion to digital assets has made him a pro-crypto candidate who favors ending strict laws and creating a national Bitcoin reserve. This shift led many investors to believe there would be less stringent regulations in place if he were elected.
Source: Polymarket
Conversely, Harris has taken a more cautious stance on cryptocurrency. While she has expressed support for innovation in business, her policies may not provide the same level of stimulus as Trump’s. Bernstein warns that Bitcoin could experience significant downward pressure under Harris’ leadership, potentially leading to prices in the low $40,000s.
Broader market implications
However, such predictions have much broader implications than Bitcoin. Analysts at Standard Chartered believe that if Trump wins, this time Bitcoin could reach $125,000; if Harris were to take the top job, Bitcoin could settle for around $75,000.
Bernstein believes that Bitcoin “win or lose” will likely follow a fairly broad positive trajectory given the macro forces – low interest rates and high debt. Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and Solana, are likely to remain stable after the election, Bernstein said, noting that these assets will not take a definitive trajectory until there is clarity on the appointment of regulatory offices in the new government.
About election results and market sentiment
As the election date approaches, market sentiment appears to be shifting in favor of Trump. In today’s prediction markets Polymarkt is in favor of Trump with an almost 9% lead against Harris. Based on analysts, this means that as long as the prospects for Trump’s victory improve, his chances will positively impact Bitcoin’s price.
The upcoming elections represent a pivotal moment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bernstein’s analysis highlights the potential market volatility due to political outcomes.
As Trump promotes a more favorable regulatory framework and Harris takes a cautious approach, investors are preparing for significant swings in bitcoin valuations as November approaches. Regardless of the winner, both analysts and investors agree that the political climate will significantly impact the future of digital assets in the United States.
Featured image from Fox Business, chart from TradingView