Bitcoin (BTC) has had a rocky start to the historically bullish month of October, impacted by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Nevertheless, bulls remain hopeful of a turnaround later this month.
Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ is off to a patchy start
The leading digital asset, as measured by reported market capitalization, had a tumultuous start to its most bullish month since 2013. The chart below shows how October has historically been the most bullish month for Bitcoin, with an average return of 21.2%.
Yesterday, BTC briefly fell below the critical $60,000 level before bouncing back to $61,179 at the time of writing. During this volatile price movement, BTC witnessed liquidations worth over $32 million, while ETH liquidations topped just over $18 million.
Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has fallen 6.9%, while major altcoins have suffered even bigger losses. Ethereum (ETH) is down 11.2%, Solana (SOL) is down 10.9%, and BNB is down 9.9%.
According to CoinGlass data, most of BTC’s price appreciation typically occurs in the second half of October. The chart below illustrates that the first days of October have historically been less favorable for BTC prices.
Notably, October 1 has only been positive for Bitcoin once since 2013, while October 2 has shown gains five out of eleven times. In contrast, later dates, such as October 28, have had positive returns nine out of 11 times, followed by October 20, which had eight out of 11 positive days.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin’s most bearish month, September, ended this year with a gain of 7.29%, which is its best performance since 2013.
Multiple factors that influence Bitcoin’s price action
Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving in April 2024, followed by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts in September, two events generally considered bullish for BTC’s price outlook.
However, increasing geopolitical escalations have overshadowed these positive developments and the uncertainty surrounding the results of the closely contested US presidential elections in November 2024.
That said, some crypto analysts are confident that Bitcoin will rebound later this year. For example, an analyst from Standard Chartered sees BTC’s drop below $60,000 is a huge buying opportunity.
This also applies to Markus Thielen of 10x Research provides “exceptionally high” chances of a crypto rally in the fourth quarter of 2024. Some factors for this prediction include the decreasing Bitcoin dominance and the rise in Ethereum gas rates.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, on the other hand believes that interest rate cuts could lead to a short-term market crash. BTC is trading at $61,179 at the time of writing, up 2.2% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from Coinglass.com and TradingView.com