The Bitcoin price is expected to reach the 6-figure mark for a few years now, but this goal remains elusive for the cryptocurrency. However, with a crypto bull run predicted by experts just around the corner, expectations for a 6-figure Bitcoin price have resurfaced. One crypto analyst in particular has taken it a step further, predicting when the Bitcoin price will reach a value of $200,000 based on historical data.
Bitcoin Power Law and Exponential Decay Theory
In an X (formerly Twitter) afterPseudonymous crypto analyst @apsk32 pointed out a 13-year trend that has been in effect for Bitcoin since its inception. This trend uses a power law equation and exponential decay to help determine how high the Bitcoin price will go in each cycle and how low it can potentially go afterward.
The Power Law Cycle Cloud, demonstrated by the crypto analyst in a video attached to the X-post, showed how high the BTC price has risen and fallen in the last three bull and bear cycles. Using the same trend, the crypto analyst has suggested how high the Bitcoin price will rise.
According to the trend, the crypto analyst believes that Bitcoin price will break the 6-digit barrier and peak just below or at $200,000. The year in which this is expected to happen is 2025, which would stick to the established four-year bull cycles for BTC.
Just as the trend predicts how high the price will go, it also shows how low it can go in the bear market after the bull market. It predicts that in 2026, BTC will drop about 57.5% from its high of $200,000 and reach a low of $85,000.
The crypto analyst further expressed his concerns that the Bitcoin price could deviate from this trend. First, he points out that Bitcoin proponent Michael Saylor had said that “all your models will be broken!” However, the analyst emphasizes the fact that the model Saylor ultimately presents for BTC also agrees with what the Power Law says.
The analyst also acknowledges the potential for an invalidation, saying, “I’ll be looking for a channel invalidation. As someone who has seen his BTC drop 80% twice, I’m looking for more than ‘this time it’ll be different.’”
As regards Bitcoin is disappearing From the power law and exponential decay trend, the crypto analyst explained: “We don’t have to like it, but we do have to respect it.” He added: “We can hope that it will change, while we remain aware of this trend of the last 13 years.”
Main image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com