So far in 2024, the Ethereum price development failed to live up to market expectations. Instead of Bitcoin surging to new all-time highs as expected, it stalled and failed to claim $4,000 even at the peak of the rally. Now, with the third quarter in full swing, the Ethereum price may still be far from new all-time highs, as this is historically the worst quarter for the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
How Ethereum Performed in the Third Quarter
The third quarter of the year, consisting of the months of July, August and September, has always been quite bearish for the Ethereum price. We see this from data presented on the Coinglass website, which provides monthly returns for the altcoin since its launch in 2016.
While the average return of most other months was quite high, these three months show some of the lowest figures. In recent years, more red months than green months have been realized in the third quarter.
To put this into perspective, in the nine years of July, it has only finished in the green three times, with six negative months. August has followed the same trend, with six negative months and three green months. September has finished in the red five times in eight years, compared to only three in the green. As a result, the average monthly returns for these months are +5.51%, +6.98%, and -7.67%. Back then, the median returns were all negative across the board.
This performance shows that the 3rd quarter of the year has always been the most bearish. Ethereum, on the other hand, has had its best returns in the first quarter of the year, closely followed by the second quarter. Therefore, as the year draws to a close, the more bearish the Ethereum price gets.
What to expect here
If we go by historical data and assume that the Ethereum price continues this trend, then the altcoin may not see significant recovery from here towards the end of the year. The data suggests that September could be even worse with more losses.
However, entering the final quarter of the year could bring some relief to investors as prices could rise again. But for real gains, it could be months until the first quarter of 2025, when the Ethereum price is known to have its best returns.
Moreover, if this pattern continues, then the Ethereum price could reach a new all-time high in the second quarter of 2025, pushing its price above $5,000, a doubling.
Main image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com