It seems that Bitcoin’s price development in September at a critical momentand it carries within it the potential to unfold in two very different directions. After the closing of August on a bearish notethe leading cryptocurrency has continued to show signs of weakness after the start of September. The first few days of the month have already seen Bitcoin move further into bearish territory, a development that could potentially herald a prolonged period of capitulation for the rest of the month. However, if we keep in mind that we’re talking about BTC here, and that we’re only three days into September, we could see the crypto bounce back sometime mid-month.
Adding to this speculation, a well-known crypto analyst who goes by the social media pseudonym Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) recently shared his thoughts on the possible outcomes for Bitcoin this month.
Bitcoin Trajectory in September
According to his analysisThere are two primary scenarios that could play out for Bitcoin in September. The first scenario sees a rally that defies prevailing bearish expectations and surprises the market with an unexpected surge. The second scenario, however, involves a final phase of capitulation, where Bitcoin could reach new lows before staging a significant recovery in the last quarter of 2024.
This analysis focuses on the Bitcoin/US Dollar (BTC/USD) chart observed on a weekly timeframe. According to the current chart setup by @Washigorira, BTC has been following a price pattern that closely resembles a bullish expanding triangle since it reached its all-time high of $73,737 in March 2024. This particular pattern is widely recognized for its bullish signals. Despite the current short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive. As such, both scenarios noted by the analyst ultimately end with a bullish rise for Bitcoin.
In the first scenario, Bitcoin is expected to start a significant price increase in September. This increase would be strong enough to push the cryptocurrency above the upper trendline of the bullish expanding triangle that has served as a strong resistance level for months. If BTC successfully breaks this resistance, the price could potentially achieve a full breakout and set the stage for a new all-time high.
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In terms of the price target for this scenario, a full breakout will see BTC reach $150,000 in Q1 2025. Interestingly, this mirrors the bullish rally that took place in Q4 2023, which eventually ended with the last all-time high in Q1 2024.
The second scenario presents a more cautious outlookwhere Bitcoin continues to experience the current capitulation phase. This scenario sees Bitcoin continue to decline in September, possibly break through the $50,000 mark. Such a drop could mean that BTC retests its August low of $49,800, which is a crucial support level.
However, this scenario doesn’t end on a bearish note. After this potential dip, Bitcoin is expected to reverse its downward trend in Q4 2024. This would then lead to a bullish rally with a slightly more conservative price target of $100,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $56,716.
Main image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com