As 2024 draws to a close, Bitcoin investors are eagerly awaiting the final quarter of the year, which is traditionally known for positive price action. With many speculating that a bullish rally may be in store, let’s analyze the historical data, analyze trends, and weigh the possibilities of what BTC’s price action could look like by the end of this year.
Historical performance of Bitcoin in the fourth quarter
Looking at the past decade on the Heatmap for monthly returnsThe fourth quarter has regularly delivered impressive gains for Bitcoin. Data shows that BTC often ends the year strong, as evidenced by three consecutive green months in 2023. Not every year follows this trend, but 2021 and 2022 were less favorable, with Bitcoin ending the year on a more bearish note. Still, years like 2020 and 2015 through 2017 saw huge price increases, underscoring the potential for a bullish ending in the fourth quarter.
Analysis of potential results in the fourth quarter of 2024 based on historical data
To better understand the potential results for Q4 2024, we can compare past Q4 performance to current price action. This could give us an idea of how Bitcoin might behave if historical patterns continue. The range of possible outcomes is wide, from significant gains to small losses, or even sideways price movements. The projection lines are rainbow color coded, ranging from 2023 in red to 2015 in a light purple hue.
For example, in 2017 (purple line), Bitcoin saw a significant increase, suggesting that in an optimistic scenario, Bitcoin could reach prices as high as $240,000 by the end of 2024.
However, more conservative estimates are also possible. In a more subdued fourth quarter, Bitcoin could range between $93,000 and $110,000, while in a bearish scenario, prices could fall to $34,000, as seen in 2018 (blue line).
The average outcome based on this data seems to be around the price of $85,000. While this is based on the year-end price from these projections, years like 2021 (yellow line) resulted in a significantly higher price before notable pullbacks to end the year.
Is the average outcome a possibility?
While a value of $85,000 in about three months seems optimistic, we only have to look back to February of this year to see a single month where BTC rose 43.63%. We can also look at statistics such as The golden ratio multiplier which show confluence around this level as a potential target with its 1.6x accumulation high level.
Is $240,000 even possible?
Whether Bitcoin can reach such high values will depend on several factors. An increase in demand combined with limited supply could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Furthermore, developments such as Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investments or major geopolitical events could further stimulate demand. We also see a similar pattern in this cycle as in the previous two, with a first wave of large-scale market inflow before a cooling-off period; possibly organizing a second rally in the near future.
This is probably too ambitious; Bitcoin’s market capitalization has grown tremendously since 2017 and tens of billions of money should flow into the market. But Bitcoin is Bitcoin, and nothing is excluded in this area!
Conclusion
While historical data suggests optimism for the fourth quarter, predicting Bitcoin’s future is always ultimately speculative. A third of all these projections resulted in sideways price action, while one predicted a large-scale decline. As always, it is important that investors remain open-minded and react to Bitcoin data and price action, rather than predicting it.
For a more in-depth look at this topic, watch our recent YouTube video here:
Bitcoin Q4 – A Positive End to 2024?