Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently discussed war-related markets on prediction betting platforms. Buterin defended the existence of the Hezbollah gambling section in Polymarket, noting their role as decentralized information tools for viewers.
Vitalik Buterin supports Hezbollah’s betting section
On Monday, the crypto community discussed the existence of war-related gambling markets after X-user Legendary expressed his concerns. The community member said having a dedicated Hezbollah branch felt wrong because it made a war “look like a football match to bet on.”
Hezbollah betting section in Polymarket. Source: Legendary on X
Other members shared this sentiment and agreed with the original post. However, many others refuted these concerns and argued that predicting markets on geopolitical issues is not trivializing.
Among the defenders Vitalik Buterin supported the existence of the Hezbollah betting section, noting that from the traders’ perspective these could be seen as mere betting, but for the average viewer these markets could serve as an information tool.
There are all kinds of people (including elites) on Twitter and the Internet making damaging and inaccurate predictions about conflict, and can start looking at whether people with actual skin in the game think something has a 2% or 50% chance is a valuable attribute that can help keep people healthy.
Also the founder of Ethereum explained that using these markets is not about ‘making money from bad things that happen’. Instead, Vitalik Buterin believes it creates an environment “where speech has consequences (so both unwarranted fear-mongering *and* unwarranted complacency is punished), without relying on government or corporate censorship.”
Other community members shared a similar perspective, argue that there is value in decentralized prediction markets for people who don’t trust mainstream media or live in controlled states, because it’s “useful to see the ‘true’ probabilities of these types of events happening.”
Can prediction markets influence real life events?
Chainlink guru Zach Rynes questioned Vitalik Buterin’s position. He wondered whether there should be a limit to what individuals should be able to bet on, as people could take actions to force certain outcomes.
However, the Ethereum co-founder noted that he, and most proponents of the prediction market, are against extreme situations such as murder prediction markets. Some community members argued that adding morality “can be a slippery slope,” as many companies people invest in or buy by participating in subsidize geopolitical conflicts.
Vitalik Buterine questioned how influenceable these markets were and whether they acted as a “primary incentive for people to do bad things so that they could trade on them with insider knowledge,” suggesting that we are far from the existence of the markets that determined the outcome of influence large-scale events.
It’s worth noting that his support for Polymarket isn’t new. The Ethereum founder previously defended the decentralized prediction market as it faced scrutiny from the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Placing Polymarket in the “gambling” category is a major misunderstanding of what prediction markets are or why people (including economists and policy intellectuals) are excited about them.
Vitalik Buterin also participated in Polymarket’s Series B financing, which raised $45 million in May, alongside Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund.
If reported from Bitcoinist, the prediction platform is looking to raise $50 million in a new funding round. Additionally, it is reportedly considering launching its own token so users can vote on the platform.
Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $2,632 in the three-day chart. Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView
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